We’ve now known who is going to Worlds for a few weeks, and all the power rankings have been written. The top 20 lists were compiled. The discussions have begun about who is the favorite to win the World Championship. Is it G2? Are we still in the Chinese Era? Is SKT coming back to reclaim the throne? All those questions fly around the esportsiverse and then it happens: the groups are drawn. Now comes time for the real heroes like me to pontificate.
In all seriousness though, now that we know the groups, what do we make of them? I have some thoughts and I’d like to take you on a magical journey through my expectations of the play-in and group stages now that we know for sure who will be there. I’ll start with the play-ins, and I’ll go ahead and make some assumptions about where the play-in winners end up during the main stage. Given how limited some of them are in what groups they can end up in, it has a very decent chance of being correct.
Play-Ins
Group A
Clutch Gaming 3-1 (Winner in Tiebreak)
Unicorns of Love 3-1 (Loser in Tiebreak)
Mammoth Gaming 0-4
This one seemed pretty straightforward to me at first glance. I’m gonna guess that the two favorites do what we’d expect them to do and take their matches against Mammoth, while splitting their games against each other. This is a prime letdown spot for either UoL or Clutch though, as I think Mammoth is a very game team.
Group B
Splyce 4-0
Isurus 1-3 (Winner in Tiebreak)
Detonation FocusME 1-3 (Loser in Tiebreak)
I’m extremely confident in a Splyce 4-0 here. There was a lot of talk about DFM and Isurus on the desk during the play-in draw but I don’t think any of these emerging region teams will be that tough for Splyce. The fun in this group is between Isurus and DFM. I think Isurus is definitely the better team, but I like them to lose one to DFM here and cause some drama before eventually making the eliminations.
Group C
Lowkey Esports 3-1 (Winner in Tiebreak)
Hong Kong Attitude 3-1 (Loser in Tiebreak)
MEGA 0-4
Very similar to the first group for me. Neither Lowkey nor HKA are consistent enough to think they will sweep the group, but I don’t like MEGA’s chance of grabbing a game from either. In the end I think Lowkey edges out HKA in a battle of a tiebreaker. I wouldn’t be entirely blown away if HKA 4-0ed the group either, as it’s tough to gauge the level of the LMS teams but I’m gonna give Lowkey the edge on this one.
Group D
Damwon Gaming 4-0
Royal Youth 2-2
Flamengo 0-4
Really tough group draw for Flamengo here as I’d like them to make the playoffs in group C and they’d contend better in A or B I think. This was a hard draw and really unfortunate for Brazil as I think Damwon sweeps easily and Royal Youth shows to be the better emerging region team.
Play-in Elimination Stage
We are going to have to make some leaps of logic in this section but it doesn’t allow for a crazy number of mistakes really given what I think is likely. I think Splyce, Damwon, and Clutch will all win their matches here regardless of their opponent.
This means the only spot up for grabs is the team who plays against Lowkey, which has to be either Royal Youth, Isurus, or Unicorns of Love. Given that I think all 3 of those teams will beat Lowkey in a series, we have a 33% chance of being right in which team gets that draw. I’m going to use Royal Youth as my example in this case, just so that we may continue.
Main Event
We now have some teams that will need to slot into the main event groups, and luckily this set of teams makes this fairly reasonable to predict.
Because teams can’t enter a group with someone else from their own region, that forces other teams into certain groups. So we’re left with this:
Clutch Gaming can go into Group B or C
Damwon can go into B or D
Splyce can go into B or D
Since Damwon and Splyce are definitely going into B or D, Clutch ends up in C and RY ends up in A.
The only decision that leaves for us to flip a coin on is Damwon and Splyce. Lets assume Splyce goes into B and Damwon into D.
Group A
G2 Esports 5-1
Griffin 4-2
C9 3-3
Royal Youth 0-6
This result relies on Griffin splitting games with both G2 and C9, which I think is a reasonable assumption. C9 loses both games to G2 and Royal Youth loses out to everyone. I love this Royal Youth team but I think they are out of their depth on the main stage here, and G2 will slide their way into a #1 seed mostly off the back of Griffin’s loss to C9.
Group B
Funplus Phoenix 5-1 (Winner in Tiebreak)
Damwon Gaming 5-1 (Loser in Tiebreak)
J-Team 1-5
GAM Esports 1-5
The favorites in this group sweep the underdogs while splitting the games between themselves, and the underdogs do the same on the bottom. Damwon and FPX play some wild matches that ultimately ends in FPX getting the better of the tiebreaker and sending themselves to the playoffs as the 1-seed.
Group C
Fnatic: 4-2 (Winner in Tiebreaker)
SK Telecom T1: 4-2 (Loser in Tiebreaker)
Royal Never Give Up: 3-3
Clutch Gaming: 1-5
This is the best group of the event so far, but I think I can see how this one plays out. The top 3 all split their series 1-1, but in the end it’s Royal who gives up the loss to Clutch Gaming, knocking them out of the playoffs. SKT is power ranked higher for me, but Fnatic steals the tiebreaker to enter the playoffs as a 1-seed.
Group D
Invictus Gaming 4-2 (Winner in Tiebreak)
Team Liquid 4-2 (Loser in Tiebreak)
Splyce 3-3
AHQ Esports 1-5
Invictus Gaming sweeps TL, only to lose a game a piece vs. both Splyce and AHQ. Splyce beats AHQ in both matchups and steals a game from IG but gets swept by TL in nail-biting games. Team Liquid squeaks through last minute but falls in the tiebreakers and has everyone on Twitter memeing on NA as we go into the playoffs.
All of this would leave us with the following setup going into the playoffs:
1 Seeds:
Invictus Gaming
Fnatic
Funplus Phoenix
G2
2 Seeds:
Team Liquid
SK Telecom T1
Damwon Gaming
Griffin
And this is practically the entire reason I wanted to talk about this. This is an insane amount of talent, by far the highest average level of skill we’ve ever had at Worlds. Nothing surprises me from here.
I did my power rankings. I placed my bets, I know who the game changers are, but when you show me these 8 teams there isn’t a single matchup you can make where I’m confident I know the winner.
By the time these matchups roll around, I’m sure we’ll all feel more concretely one way or another, but for now I just love basking in the abyss of not knowing. Of these 8 teams I legitimately think there are seven teams that can reasonably win this World Championship, and all eight are very capable of taking a match from anyone else. That’s fantastic and just what any true fan would hope for out of Worlds.