The Patch Notes for patch 5.16 have just landed, bringing with them a massive range of changes. It’s a huge patch, the largest I can remember seeing outside of a preseason, and should heavily shake up the meta game. But today’s patch notes revealed that these changes might not see any pro play whatsoever before the World Championships arrive.
That piece of information came in the preamble to the patch notes, in this quote:
Before we dive in, let’s clear some things up for all the esports fans out there – 5.14 (the one with crazy Elise, #bigsorry) will be the one that the rest of playoffs including the gauntlet will be played on. Worlds will be played on 5.18, which means while we totally hear you about these changes being pretty huge before worlds, we’ve set aside the next two to react and tune as necessary (read: lighter touches) before these changes hit the big stage. -Scarizard
This statement only specifically covers the North American and European Regionals tournaments, which will be played next month. (The LMS regional tournament has already concluded. It’s unclear what patch the LCK and LPL regionals and the International Wild Card Invitational will be played on, but it seems likely that they’ll remain on either patch 5.14 or 5.15, as well. The LCK playoffs are already being played on patch 5.15.)
If Korea and/or China do play their Regional tournaments in the new meta, they could arrive at Worlds with a huge leg up on the other regions, due to that learning experience, so my hope is that they stay with 5.14/5.15 for the sake of global parity. Clarity on this point will be welcome when it arrives.
The decision to play the Regionals tournaments on patches prior to 5.16 makes a lot of sense. The 5.14 meta has had some time to settle in, and changes this big shouldn’t really see pro play until there has been some time to spot the balance outliers and tweak them, especially when a trip to the World Championships is on the line. There’s simply too much uncertainty in 5.16 to allow it to be implemented yet.
But the unintended consequence of playing the Regionals on 5.14 is that the World Championships will be played on an entirely different meta, one that has had no opportunity to be tested in pro play. Yes, there will be two “tweaking” patches with 5.17 and 5.18, but unless Riot is soliciting feedback from pro teams based on their scrims and solo queue experiences, then those tweaks will be based almost entirely on solo queue. Obviously solo queue is not the most accurate way to predict the behavior of pro players and teams, so Worlds could be played on a meta that is untouched by pro-scene influences. Fascinating, to say the least.
There are pros and cons to ushering in a brand new meta via the World Championships.
Pros
The untested 5.18 meta should make for a very interesting and entertaining group stage. The group stage will be heavily influenced by which teams bring the most creative adaptations to the tournament, and who is able to react and adjust most quickly as they see the priorities prepared by other teams. Preparation will be paramount, to make sure that your team has found the “best” new approaches to playing the game, and identified the champions and strategies that have taken on new important. But the ability to react will be equally important, because it’s almost a guarantee that your preparation will have missed some angle that others have struck upon.
Cons
The unpredictability of a new meta might lower the level of execution in strategic and tactical play. With less time to practice new strategies in a competitive environment, there will be more mistakes, more surprises, and possibly more blowout victories and surprise comebacks due to unforeseen combos or power spikes. Where unexpectedly strong team compositions or champion picks arise, it could feel like it’s artificially closing the skill gap between teams, leading to more (perceived) upsets. Upsets are great entertainment, but they are not necessarily high quality sport, in the sense of high-execution, high-preparation play.
Final Thoughts
When the World Championships roll around, I don’t expect creativity and adaptability to become more important than execution, but I do expect them to play a larger role than they otherwise would have. That’s a big bonus to entertainment value.
But if you watch League of Legends to see perfect execution and team play, and to watch teams work within, master, and creatively subvert an established, stable meta game, then the World Championships may not produce the type of LoL you’re hoping for.
What are your thoughts on how the World Championships meta will play out? Who might these changes help? Who will they hurt?
Tim “Mag1c” Sevenhuysen is the founder of OraclesElixir.com, serves as Statistical Consultant for Fnatic, and writes for Unikrn.com.