Before the World Champions group stage began, I posted a poll about various predictions.
Here are the results, now updated with both the prediction results and the actual outcomes.
Note: Where appropriate, I’ve listed only the top 5 most common responses, so they will not add up to 100%.
Q: CHAMPION DIVERSITY: How many different champions will be used during the group stage?
- Fewer than 30 12%
- Between 30 and 39 21%
- Between 40 and 49 19%
- Between 50 and 59 19%
- Between 60 and 69 12%
- More than 70 17%
Average Prediction: 50.3
Mag1c’s Prediction: 59
Result: 69
Q: OP CHAMPIONS: Which champion will have the highest pick+ban rate during the group stage?
- Lulu (25%)
- Fiora (16%)
- Darius (11%)
- Gangplank (11%)
- Mordekaiser (11%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: Lulu
Result: Gangplank (100% pick+ban)
Q: KILLS: Which player will end the group stage with the most total kills?
- LGD imp (36%)
- CLG Doublelift (15%)
- SKT Faker (15%)
- SKT Bang (13%)
- FNC Rekkles (5%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: SKT Bang
Result: ahq AN (38)
Q: DEATHS: Which player will end the group stage with the most total deaths?
- TSM Dyrus (35%)
- BKT Moss (13%)
- BKT G4 (11%)
- C9 Balls (9%)
- BKT Warl0ck (7%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: BKT Moss
Result: BKT G4 (31)
Q: SOLO KILLS: Which player will earn the most solo kills during the group stage?
- SKT Faker (29%)
- FNC Febiven (13%)
- iG Rookie (9%)
- KT Ssumday (9%)
- CLG ZionSpartan (9%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: SKT Faker
Result: SKT MaRin and ahq westdoor (6 each)
Q: WPM: Which player will place the highest average Wards per Minute in the group stages?
- KT Piccaboo (26%)
- FNC YellOwStaR (20%)
- LGD Pyl (16%)
- KOO GorillA (11%)
- EDG Meiko (9%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: KOO GorillA
Result: KT Piccaboo (1.56 WPM)
Q: WILDCARDS: How many wins will the Wildcard teams earn, combined?
- 0 9%
- 1 39%
- 2 27%
- 3 or 4 25%
Mag1c’s Prediction: 1 win
Result: 2 wins (both by paiN Gaming)
Q: FIRST BLOOD: Which team will secure the highest First Blood rate in the group stage?
- SK Telecom T1 (22%)
- EDward Gaming (16%)
- Counter Logic Gaming (15%)
- Invictus Gaming (11%)
- KT Rolster (11%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: CLG
Result: Fnatic (6 for 6, 100%)
Q: DRAGONS: Which team will kill the most Dragons during the group stage?
- SK Telecom T1 (39%)
- KOO Tigers (16%)
- Fnatic (14%)
- LGD (14%)
- Invictus Gaming (5%)
- KT Rolster (5%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: KOO Tigers
Result: SK Telecom T1 (24 Dragons)
Q: BARONS: Which team will kill the most Barons during the group stage?
- Fnatic (34%)
- SK Telecom T1 (20%)
- LGD (18%)
- EDward Gaming (13%)
- KOO Tigers (5%)
Mag1c’s Prediction: KOO Tigers
Result: Flash Wolves (9)
Q: MINIONS: How many minions and neutral monsters will be killed by all teams combined during the group stage?
Average of Predictions: 90,953
Mag1c’s Prediction: 98,000
Rationale: Across the NA LCS, EU LCS, LCK, and LMS regular seasons, games averaged 2,134 minion+monster kills. In 48 games, that would be 102,454 total minions+monsters. However, I expected game lengths to be shorter than usual, because of imbalanced matchups, so I’m revising the estimate a bit downwards.
Result: 95,926
Q: FASTEST FB: What time will the fastest First Blood happen at in the group stage?
Average of Predictions: 1:39
Fastest Prediction: 0:42
Mag1c’s Prediction: 0:55
Result: 1:03 (paiN Gaming killing CLG)
Q: SHORTEST GAME: Predict the length of the shortest game in the group stages.
Average of Predictions: 20:42
Shortest Prediction: 12:00
Mag1c’s Prediction: 22:33
Result: 20:21 (EDG defeat BKT)
Q: LONGEST GAME: Predict the length of the longest game in the group stages.
Average of Predictions: 59:05
Longest Prediction: 1:15:40
Mag1c’s Prediction: 57:22
Result: 55:27 (Origen defeat Team SoloMid)