The LCS 2020 Summer Split kicks off this Friday, and we’ve seen quite a few changes to the rosters. Aside from Cloud9‘s solid hold on the LCS’s top spot, the balance of power around the league was pretty precarious in Spring, and the movement of players like Doublelift, Dardoch, and Damonte could introduce a lot more volatility, making it hard to predict who might emerge to take a shot at C9 come playoffs.
I foresee a lot of movement from a few mid-tier teams, and a holding pattern from others, which should allow for some leapfrogging and hopefully a tighter pack of contenders looking to dethrone C9.
The following power rankings are my attempt to sort through the rosters and gauge each team’s strength, and where I think they’ll finish by the end of the split. Along the way, I’ll make notes of what I had predicted for Spring, and what actually happened, to provide some context for what I’m thinking now.
Edit: I don’t normally edit this type of analysis after it’s posted, but the Immortals announced an unexpected starting roster on June 10 and I felt compelled to revise accordingly.
8. 10. Immortals
sOAZ
Potluck Xmithie
Eika
Altec Apollo
Gate Hakuho
I could basically copy/paste what I prior to the spring split here… As a reminder, I said:
The Immortals lack a star carry. Arguably, they lack a star player entirely. I’m willing to stretch my definition of “star” a little to give a nod to Soaz, but I don’t believe Soaz is at his best as a team’s primary breadwinner.
My opinion of sOAZ has improved somewhat, but analysis of his strengths hasn’t.
I thought Eika would be “good but not great”, but I wouldn’t say he was even good in Spring, to be honest.
Bringing in Apollo over Altec raised the team’s floor, but didn’t do much for their ceiling. They’re held back by their lack of real carry options, which is hard to excuse given their use of import slots for both solo lane positions. Edit: Hm.
The only reasons I still place them above CLG are sOAZ’s ability to create options out of nowhere and the relative strength of the Apollo/Hakuho duo.
Spring Preseason Rank: 9
Spring Finish: 8
Summer Preseason Rank: 8 10
10. 9. Dignitas
V1per/Lourlo
Dardoch/Akaadian
Froggen/Fenix
Johnsun
aphromoo/JayJ
Dignitas shed a lot of payroll by sending Huni to Evil Geniuses, and they gave themselves some personnel flexibility by adding Dardoch and JayJ. I can only assume that budget pressure played a role in dropping Huni, because given his history, one split of poor play is nowhere near enough to say that V1per or Lourlo would actually give this team a better chance to win. It is what it is.
While I like the idea of Dardoch and Akaadian competing for a spot, their profile as players isn’t that different, so I don’t think it will make a huge difference to the profile of their team. If I had to place a bet, I’d look for Akaadian to get more play time, but who knows? With either of these players, I’d be much more excited if there was a low-econ, utility-focused player in either of the solo lanes, but V1per’s best play comes on carries and Froggen, despite being a good overall mid laner, still isn’t at his best in a jungler-enabling role a la Nisqy or Damonte.
I like JayJ, and I hope he’ll get some play time. I think he still has good potential. I haven’t felt great about aphromoo’s level of play for quite a while now, so if nothing else I think JayJ could provide a breath of fresh air.
Spring Preseason Rank: 8
Spring Finish: 7
Summer Preseason Rank: 10 9
9. 8. Counter Logic Gaming
Ruin
Wiggily
Pobelter
Stixxay/Wind
Smoothie
Boy did these guys need an offseason to reset.
They also needed a roster change in the bot lane, my opinion, but I guess you can’t have everything.
I still believe in Wiggily and Smoothie, and I think Pobelter and Ruin can do enough to keep the team viable. But I don’t believe they have enough star power or carry threat in their lineup overall, which really limits their ceiling as a team. A modest upgrade in the bottom lane could have put them in playoff contention, in my opinion, but as it is, playoffs would be a surprise. CLG should at least be able to avoid a repeat 10th, though.
For more thoughts on CLG and what they need to do to climb out of the LCS basement, check out what I wrote about them last month in my column for Esports One.
Spring Preseason Rank: 4
Spring Finish: 10
Summer Preseason Rank: 9 8
7. 100 Thieves
Ssumday
Meteos
Ryoma
Cody Sun
Stunt
I might be underrating this team, but in my opinion they overachieved in Spring, particularly with their 3rd-place finish in the regular season, and their closest competitors (TSM, TL, GG) have made positive changes.
The main way 100T have improved so far this year is Ryoma’s level of individual play. He’s less of a weak point than he used to be. I wouldn’t go so far as to call him a point of strength, though, since he still has issues with laning and consistency.
I like Stunt more than the general consensus, as far as I can tell, but not enough to call him a difference-maker. He, Meteos, and Cody Sun are all viable players, but none of them provide enough to offer real balance with Ssumday’s top lane strength, and Ryoma has a lot more growing to do if he wants to become that true second option.
I would be surprised to see 100T grow as much as their mid-tier competitors, so Summer may feel like a bit of a regression, relatively speaking.
Spring Preseason Rank: 7
Spring Finish: 5/6
Summer Preseason Rank: 7
6. Golden Guardians
Hauntzer
Closer
Damonte
FBI
huhi
I like the late addition of Damonte to this squad. His high mobility and proactivity could really pay off alongside Closer and FBI.
With huhi locking in the starter role at Support, GG should be starting this split a few steps further along in their growth compared to Spring, when they had to put so much time into buying Keith room to grow into his new role. That should allow GG to work more on their team play and come together better as a squad. I especially hope it will be a boost for FBI, because he’s an underrated player who could be much more of a difference-maker with a consistent Support partner and a roaming mid like Damonte.
The Golden Guardians surprised us all with their Spring results, and as long as they grow at a reasonable pace I think they can replicate their success. The main threat to their position will be the growth of the teams that finished below them, such as Team Liquid.
Spring Preseason Rank: 10
Spring Finish: 5/6
Summer Preseason Rank: 6
5. FlyQuest
Solo
Santorin
PowerOfEvil
WildTurtle
IgNar
FlyQuest were able to fill the power vacuum that was left when Team Liquid and Counter Logic Gaming faltered, stepping in alongside Evil Geniuses and Team SoloMid as the league’s “tier 2” teams. Their playoff run was an overperformance, in the sense that they played their best LoL at the right time, and were elevated in the final results because teams with more talent failed to deliver.
Ultimately, I would say FlyQuest played pretty much at the level I had expected if you average out their Spring split as a whole. But I don’t believe FlyQuest can grow as much for Summer as their main competitors (specifically TSM and TL). Their quality should stay pretty consistent, and that’s going to result in a middle-of-the-pack finish.
Spring Preseason Rank: 6
Spring Finish: 2
Summer Preseason Rank: 5
4. Team Liquid
Impact
Broxah
Jensen
Tactical
CoreJJ
Team Liquid had plenty of time and budget available to find a stronger win-now bot laner than Tactical, but they lacked one crucial ingredient to make an upgrade: supply. The list of quality and/or available domestic bot laners is very short in North America — that’s part of what has made Doublelift one of the most valuable commodities in the league for so long. Short of buying out a current LCS starter from another team, who was available for Team Liquid? The best Academy bot laners are imports, with K1ng and Lost topping the list. Altec didn’t do much for Immortals in his stint. Deftly is the most attractive option. I’d argue that Deftly is a better player than Tactical right now, but the gap isn’t that big, and Tactical has a lot more unexplored potential, not to mention existing familiarity with the team and coaching staff. I can’t help but think that Tactical will underwhelm this split, but from the team’s perspective, that’s the cost of parting ways with Doublelift, and maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised.
As far as the rest of the team, there’s hope that Team Liquid will experience addition by subtraction, freeing up strategic resources to give Broxah more freedom and allow Jensen to finally play front and center, which is what he has always been best at. Ever since Broxah joined the team, I’ve been talking about the need for Team Liquid to build out their mid+jungle synergy and empower Jensen to be the primary carry. That’s no longer just a strategic option for them; it’s mandatory.
Impact will also have space to do more for the team, and he has a lot of room to improve relative to his spring split showing. He looked very unmotivated and out of joint all spring long, and TL need him to drive their team play and objective control a lot more. The removal of Doublelift’s voice will hopefully give Impact more space to work.
As a final thought, Team Liquid weren’t as bad in the spring split as the standings suggested. They were 4th in GPR and 3rd in GSPD, with positive K:D ratio, lane control, and jungle control. What cost them was their poor objective control and out of sync team play. Despite everything that went on with this team, they were pretty close to contending near the top of the league, and if they had made the playoffs who knows whether they might have found a way to smooth out the rough edges and make a run?
Don’t sleep on Team Liquid this split. I can actually see them overtaking EG or TSM if the pieces come together, and I’d be surprised to see them miss the playoffs again.
Spring Preseason Rank: 1
Spring Finish: 9
Summer Preseason Rank: 4
3. TSM
BrokenBlade
Spica
Bjergsen
Doublelift
Biofrost
I was heavily criticized by TSM’s fanbase for ranking them 5th coming into the spring split. Given the complete collapses of CLG and Team Liquid relative to those teams’ expectations, I feel good about my assessment of how they were going to perform, and where their issues would come from.
Specifically, I had been concerned about Dardoch, writing:
I would not have signed Dardoch, personally, not because of the drama and the reputation but because I didn’t see a high enough level of play from him in the 2019 Academy games I watched. He played antsy and arrogant, forcing plays left and right.
I even went so far as to say that I would have preferred TSM to sign Lira + Cody Sun instead of Dardoch + Kobbe. Well, neither Dardoch nor Kobbe is on the team any longer…
Looking forward, even if Spica plays at a relatively low level, it should be a sideways move at worst. And I’ve written elsewhere about the Kobbe/Doublelift change, and why I believe it will lead to improvement for TSM.
When you put it all together, I’m more optimistic about TSM than I have been in a long time.
Spring Preseason Rank: 5
Spring Finish: 4
Summer Preseason Rank: 3
2. Evil Geniuses
Kumo
Svenskeren
Jiizuke
Bang
Zeyzal
It’s too bad that Kumo struggled so much during the Spring split, but he was never going to be much of a win condition for Evil Geniuses. The bigger issue is the inconsistency of Svenskeren and Jiizuke, who frequently failed to set the table for Bang, instead playing far too loose and often feeding. An offseason to reflect and review will hopefully bear good fruit, because all that’s required for Evil Geniuses to threaten for the top of the LCS is to clean up a few individual mistakes per game.
Huni is technically available to add his power to the top lane, but that would require sitting either Jiizuke or Bang, and that really shouldn’t happen. Maybe we’ll see Huni join as a domestic player in Spring 2021, but a lot could change between now and then, so there’s not too much value in speculating.
I had high hopes for EG coming into 2020, and I still feel the same.
Spring Preseason Rank: 3
Spring Finish: 3
Summer Preseason Rank: 2
1. Cloud9
Licorice
Blaber
Nisqy
Zven
Vulcan
What is there to say? It’ll take some huge strides from the other teams, perhaps paired with a very unfavourable meta (e.g. a super slow-paced late-game team fighting meta), to knock Cloud9 off their pedestal. The most likely outcome of Summer is another C9 championship. But hey, that’s what we all said about Team Liquid six months ago…
Spring Preseason Rank: 2
Spring Finish: 1
Summer Preseason Rank: 1
To recap:
10 Dignitas
9 CLG
8 Immortals
7 100 Thieves
6 Golden Guardians
5 FlyQuest
4 Team Liquid
3 TSM
2 Evil Geniuses
1 Cloud9