Both Cloud9 and TSM have hit some very low points in their playoff journey to this point, falling into the Lower Bracket by losing series they were favoured to win. But their most recent matches have both been victories, Cloud9 constructing a reasonably convincing 3-0 over Evil Geniuses and TSM barely outlasting the Golden Guardians 3-2 in a rematch from the Upper Bracket.

With C9’s stronger regular season performance and better result in their most recent match, it might seem they are clear favourites to take out their long-time rivals and claim the final North American slot at the World Championships. But TSM should not be counted out whatsoever: the Golden Guardians were their kryptonite, while TSM have been able to go toe-to-toe with C9 all year, even when Blaber and friends were at the peak of their powers in Spring.

C9 vs. TSM promises to be a close, exciting series, as well it should be with so much on the line.

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Win Conditions

Cloud9

• Recapture mid/jungle 2v2 dominance
• Don’t give away the bottom lane

Blaber and Nisqy need to carry this series, the way they’ve done for C9 for most of the year. And it’ll be much easier for them to do that if the team doesn’t give away the side lanes with awkward drafting.

Team SoloMid

• Neutralize Blaber
• Get in Bjergsen’s backpack

TSM need to take a page out of FlyQuest’s book and neutralize Blaber, though they may not have the level 1 creativity or Santorin-pathing to achieve it, and will need their own tools and methods, which mostly means Bjergsen doing Bjergsen things.

Prediction

C9 3-1

TSM has a relatively comfortable stylistic matchup against C9, and lots of past experience beating them throughout 2020. But C9 are starting to get their mojo back, and their meta read, too, and I think they’ll get it done and punch their ticket to China for Worlds.

Cloud9 Key Player and Path to Victory

The last six to eight weeks have been a challenging journey of self-re-discovery for Cloud9, after probably the most dominant run of North American domestic play in the history of the LCS throughout the previous six months of 2020. Winning this series could wipe out most (but not all) of the disappointment that has characterized the second half of their Summer.

Blaber will be integral, as always, to Cloud9 achieving their goals. It’s crucial for C9 to get Nisqy out onto the map to make pressure plays alongside Blaber, but as a pairing, Blaber and Nisqy have been struggling to find those opportunities in the last two series as much as they’re used to. That’s partly because Blaber has been set behind in his pathing and pressure, and partly because the side lanes—especially Zven and Vulcan—haven’t reliably been creating priority to set up tower dives or lane states that are conducive to ganks or Teleport plays. In other words, I haven’t had much issue with Nisqy’s level of play or ability to seize opportunities; I’ve had more trouble with the inability of Blaber and the side lanes to give Nisqy openings to work with.

I want to see Zven and Vulcan play with more priority in lane, no question, both because I want to see them set up Nisqy plays and because I don’t want Doublelift to get a free path into the late game, but I’m willing to be flexible on that point since C9 could also choose to play from mid into top, instead, and make Licorice the strong side lane. The part I can’t be flexible on is Blaber’s need to create forward pressure, river control, and an information advantage over Spica so that Nisqy has the freedom to move and the side lanes have enough comfort to push.

Blaber’s rise to North American stardom had to hit some road bumps at some point. If he really is a star, he’ll find a way to overcome right now, not next Spring. Spica and Bjergsen will have some pushback for him, guaranteed, but I have faith that he can get the job done in spite of it.

TSM Key Player and Path to Victory

TSM’s best chance to beat C9 is to attack the C9 win conditions I just outlined: don’t let Blaber control the map early, don’t let Nisqy roam, and ultimately don’t let Cloud9 come into the mid game with advantages.

Bjergsen is at the heart of TSM’s chances here. TSM is Bjergsen, all the way down. Always has been. (Look at me meming! How’s it going, fellow kids?)

In week 8, TSM beat C9 on the back of Bjergsen’s highly active Twisted Fate, with side lane plays that helped deny ganks from Blaber and stabilize Doublelift’s losing lane, allowing TSM to reach mid-game team fights without getting snowballed on. That’s exactly the kind of thing he needs to do in this series, either attacking vulnerabilities in C9’s side lanes if they play Ezreal/Yuumi or other similar picks, or denying Blaber’s pressure and helping Spica make reactive, defensive plays if the need arises.

Bjergsen is capable of playing either the proactive or the reactive role, partly depending on which champions C9 will let him draft (they’re going to ban Zilean, presumably) and partly depending on how much proactivity TSM builds into Spica (giving him Nidalee, for example) and the side lanes for Bjergsen to work around.

Looking beyond Bjergsen, Spica will also have an important job, having to draft and path against Blaber. I have more confidence in Spica than many others seem to, and it was very gratifying to see him play a strong top side role against the Golden Guardians with Nidalee alongside Broken Blade’s Renekton and deliver results in that setup. I’m not sure that’s the best approach against C9, but I’d like to see TSM try it at least once to create more flexibility in their drafting. As a foundation, Spica’s Sett or something else more utility-oriented is a good place to work from, asking Spica to path sacrificially and gank for his side lanes, or make some predictions and countergank Blaber. He can do a lot in that role and cut some corners on his pathing to get his teammates into a better position.

I would be remiss to say nothing about TSM’s Support situation, but there shouldn’t be much to say. TSM played better with Biofrost and achieved a better result than they did with Treatz, largely because of the comfort level between Doublelift and Biofrost I’m sure. Biofrost wasn’t that good overall, individually, but individual performance is less important than team performance. TSM with Biofrost is better than TSM with Treatz right now, even if TSM with Treatz might end up being better if they spent a full split learning how to work together more effectively.

Ultimately, TSM can feel more comfortable against C9 than they did against GG, stylistically speaking. The C9 bot lane duo isn’t so overwhelming, so TSM won’t have to draft so carefully around Doublelift and Biofrost. Bjergsen has a clear mandate to deny Nisqy’s roaming and either beat him to map plays or outperform him in team fights. And Spica knows exactly what he’s up against in Blaber’s overpowering, aggressive style, and should be aware that he’ll need to coin-flip some gank attempts to get ahead. These are all things TSM is more than capable of doing.