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Golden Guardians Academy and Counter Logic Gaming Academy split their season series 1-1, and GGA only picked up one more win against the rest of the field, finishing 10-8 to CLGA’s 9-9. That paints this as a very close on-paper matchup.
But gold metrics tell a more nuanced story, creating some separation between the teams: GGA actually led all Academy teams in GPR with +0.93, meaning they spent most of their time playing with a gold lead, while CLGA finished 7th in GPR at -0.29. GGA created those leads with the league’s best early game (67.8 EGR); they just failed to close out their leads as much as they should, ending with the 9th-ranked MLR (-12.3), which gives CLGA a window of opportunity, with their 4th-ranked MLR of +6.8.
GGA Key Player
ZionSpartan has been GGA’s best player all split, but not necessarily for his direct ability to carry. He was 2nd in DPM among Top laners, behind Huni and ahead of Fudge, though that’s partly due to Fudge’s intense split push pressure, while ZionSpartan did a lot more 5v5 grouping so that his team could fight. ZionSpartan’s biggest contributions have come from his map awareness and contributions to macro. In so many situations, ZionSpartan has been the one stepping out of the river during a dragon dance to make sure mid or bot was pushing, creating valuable space and vision.
GGA have equipped ZionSpartan well, with 61% counterpick rate (third-highest among Academy Tops), and he was rewarded the investment with the second-best laning stats (+552 GXD10), leading into that big-time damage output.
Beyond ZionSpartan, GGA also have Ablazeolive, whose modest +67 GXD10 is still miles better than Tuesday’s -308. Ablazeolive can fade into the background sometimes, but his peaks have been higher than Tuesday’s, and at least those background-fading showings don’t usually involve inting or throwing.
CLGA Key Player
CLG Academy have a chance in this series, but admittedly a slim one. Tuesday will carry a lot of their hope: he needs to play to the height of his potential. It’s rare for a Mid laner to lead his team in Kill Participation, but Tuesday did it (at 70.6%). It’s a fitting stat, because his brightest moments have come in team fights, especially during a run of play a few weeks ago where he got to play Rumble repeatedly. I expect GGA to ban Rumble, or prepare a specific counter to it. Team fighting has been pretty core to GGA’s identity, as well, so allowing Tuesday to play Rumble would mean handing CLGA exactly the right tool to counter GGA’s preferred way to play.
When not on Rumble, Tuesday has mostly stuck to a standard carry pool (Orianna, some Corki or Syndra) along with a fairly successful Galio. There’s enough there to work with in the draft, unless GGA invest every ban into the mid lane, but it’s a predictable pool that CLGA will have to defend in the draft to some extent. That does reduce their pick/ban flexibility, so CLGA need to get a little bit creative for this series, especially if they want to avoid picking too many losing lanes and making it easy for GGA to create their typical early-game leads.
CLGA Roster Uncertainty
A big unknown here is what CLG Academy will do with their roster: will they play Tuesday and Fragas, like most of the split, or will they leave in Wiggily, since he was demoted for week 9? Is there any chance they use Pobelter?
My gut and my heart both tell me that a full “proper” Academy roster would be the best choice, both because it gives Tuesday and Fragas more valuable experience and because it’s the more “honourable” thing to do. I’m going to base my expectations on that lineup, but of course there’s a chance I’ll be wrong.
Win Conditions
GGA
- Deny Tuesday’s champion pool (Rumble, Orianna, Galio)
- Close your leads
CLGA
- Draft some winning lanes
- Stay calm and team fight on
Prediction
GGA 3-1
I’m almost comfortable enough to predict a 3-0, but there’s a chance CLGA will play around with their lineup and either leave in Wiggily, or sub Pobelter back in, or both. If that happens, the odds could shift dramatically.
Assuming no substitution shenanigans, the only way GGA should lose this series is if they fail their opposition scouting.