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With TSM’s 2-0 advantage in the season series and plenty of recent momentum, including a win over Cloud9 in week 8, Bjergsen et al. should be confident coming into this Quarterfinal. But the Golden Guardians have been consistently slept on all year and have routinely performed above expectations, earning their own win over Cloud9 earlier in the same week and ending the season with the second-best EGR and GPR in the LCS.
If the Golden Guardians can make the series all about the early game, they have a great shot to advance. But if TSM can weather the storm and find ways to scale, their superior mid/late play should see them move on.
TSM Key Player and Path to Victory
For most of the season, Bjergsen played a half-step down from MVP level. At first, Blaber was outshining him in any MVP conversations; later, CoreJJ overtook him, especially as Blaber faltered, and Team Liquid’s team success helped Jensen outshine Bjergsen as the league’s best Mid laner, as well.
In the last couple of weeks, though, TSM have come together more and more as a team, and that has allowed Bjergsen’s contributions to shine even more brightly. He is very much a top-3 MVP candidate now, and if CoreJJ and Jensen split some votes, Bjergsen might just slide in between them and grab another individual trophy for himself.
None of that really matters for the playoffs; what does matter is that Bjergsen will be tasked with laning against Damonte and limiting his influence over the rest of the map, while backing up Spica, who has arguably the most challenging head-to-head opponent in this series, facing Closer.
When TSM and GG played in week 4, Bjergsen played Twisted Fate and naturally out-roamed Damonte, influencing both side lanes and leading TSM to victory. In week 9, though, Bjergsen failed to control Damonte in lane, and Damonte was able to Teleport to the top lane for an early kill on Broken Blade. TSM’s breakdown there was more of a team failure rather than an individual mistake by Bjergsen, though, since Broken Blade and Spica were ramming the Rift Herald into the tower while Bjergsen, Doublelift, and Treatz were all resetting in the other lanes. But despite that early-game macro issue, Bjergsen still managed to scale up individually and overcome Damonte later on, turning himself into a playmaker and a decisive carry with lots of help from Treatz’s Yuumi.
Bjergsen is skilled enough that he might win TSM the series through more individual carry performances, but the more consistent path forward for TSM would be if Bjergsen can get lane control and proactively help his side lanes win, like he did in week 4. Top lane, especially, should be a vulnerable target if TSM drafts well and designs effective early games, but that game plan will only work if Bjergsen does his job in lane. I’m confident Bjergsen can do just that; and if he doesn’t, he will still offer the late game carry outlet.
Golden Guardians Key Player and Path to Victory
Only a few things in life are certain: death, taxes, and FBI and huhi hunting for 2v2 kills in the laning phase.
I’ve written recently about huhi’s excellent and underappreciated Summer split, and FBI has been receiving plenty of well-earned attention for his strong play. The most noticeable way the duo has expressed itself is with laning aggression. It’s no small feat to overwhelm a player like Doublelift 2v2, the way FBI and huhi have in both of their games against TSM this split. Strong laning Support picks like Karma and Bard have contributed to that, and I expect to see more of the same from GG in this series. If FBI and huhi can continue to attack Doublelift and Treatz the way they’ve attacked every bottom lane in the LCS all split long, it will go a very long way to creating the conditions GG need to take down TSM.
A winning bottom lane will give Closer a clear point of pressure to play around. If he can leverage that pressure, he has the potential to be the best player in this series. Closer’s +346 GXD10 was good for 3rd among starting LCS Junglers, behind Blaber and Contractz, and he’s facing Spica, whose -380 GXD10 was second-worst, only ahead of Wiggily. As long as the Golden Guardians (and especially Hauntzer) can avoid dying to Spica’s ganks and dives, Closer can easily run away with games via superior pathing. But Spica has managed to find First Blood in 44% of games this split, better than Closer’s 39%, so it won’t be quite that simple.
GG haven’t given Closer that many counterpicks this split, with just a 50% counterpick rate, despite his importance to the team. I’d like to see the coaching staff adjust their approach and try to give Closer counterpick over Spica, but that might require blind picking the solo lanes. It’s going to be an interesting puzzle to navigate, because GG can either target the jungle matchup by giving Closer resources in draft, or they can make sure Broken Blade can’t counter Hauntzer, which is something TSM would love to focus on if given the chance.
Win Conditions
TSM
- Use Bjergsen and Spica to target Hauntzer and unleash Broken Blade
- Draft safe 2v2 matchups for Doublelift and Treatz
Golden Guardians
- Crush the bottom lane
- Don’t make mistakes!
Obviously a line like “Don’t make mistakes” feels like Captain Obvious tossing out a trite truism, so I want to add a little context: Golden Guardians have done a great job earning leads and putting themselves in a favourable position, but the compositions they play have often come with a high burden of execution. Look no further than GG’s recent loss to Evil Geniuses, where they secured two Barons but had to execute their 1-3-1 composition almost perfectly to give themselves any hope of closing the game. In that case, a Damonte over-extension during the second Baron threw away a huge amount of map pressure and gave EG more than enough time and space to finish scaling into a comeback position. GG had the game in their hands but made one mistake too many and lost. That’s the kind of mistake GG need to avoid if they want to take this series.
Prediction
TSM 3-1
I can see some clear ways for the Golden Guardians to win this series, but it’s tough to look past Bjergsen or devalue the difference Treatz has made since subbing in mid-split. GG have struggled too much to close out their leads and adopt the team fight-focused, scaling meta that has been most effective, while TSM have shown better adaptation and improvement in recent weeks.
Regardless of the outcome, I think this series is going to be a ton of fun. And whichever team loses, I expect we’ll see them advance through the Lower Bracket and still contest the later rounds of the playoffs.