Just in time for MSI, Oracle’s Elixir now features live win probabilities!

To view these probabilities, create an Oracle’s Elixir user account, navigate back to the home page, and click Live in the Matches widget. Voila!

About the Statistical Model

My win probability model is a logistic regression that factors in a variety of factors such as gold, dragons, and more. It is trained on pro matches from the current split (2021 Spring). It does not account for teams’ historical strength (though I hope to incorporate that in future), and it does not account for team compositions since low sample sizes mean that factoring in champion scaling and matchups would be likely to introduce more issues than it solved.

The model powering these probabilities is slightly different from the one I’ve used in the past for live-tweeting, because the automated data source I’m using does not supply a game clock or a few other necessary data points to use the previous model. I’ve re-specified a new model that is almost as good, and I’m confident it’s good enough to be useful for these purposes, but I’ll continue to look for ways to refine the projections.