All posts by Tim Sevenhuysen

Tim Sevenhuysen is the founder and sole developer of Oracle's Elixir and provides a variety of consulting and contracting services throughout the esports industry. He is the former Director of Esports Analytics for 100 Thieves, served as Head of Data Science for Esports One, led Shadow.gg from 2017 to 2019, and was Statistical Consultant for Fnatic in 2015. Follow Tim on Twitter at @TimSevenhuysen.
Check the Data

Win Rates by Map Side

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As of March 2, the Blue side of Summoner’s Rift has a slightly higher win rate across the NA LCS, EU LCS, LCK, LMS, and CBLoL. (I don’t currently have LPL data, but I’m working on it!) Blue side has a 52% win rate, with Red side at 48%.

The tables below break down each team’s win rate on each side of the map.

Notables:

  • The ROX Tigers have dropped just three games this split, and all three losses have come on Blue side.
  • The Jin Air Green Wings and CJ Entus have huge gaps in win rates by map side. CJ Entus have won 77% of their Blue side games and just 14% on Red side, while Jin Air’s Red side win rate is nearly double what they’ve done on Blue.
  • Dignitas and Renegades have not won a single game on Red side this split, but Dignitas are 4-3 on Blue side and Renegades have earned both of their wins on Blue.
  • Fnatic are 6-1 on Blue side and just 2-5 on Red.
  • CLG are 7-1 on Red side but 3-3 on Blue.

NA LCSWins by map side, EUWins by map side, LCKWins by map side, LMS

Analysis and Opinion

TSM at IEM: Looking Back; Looking Forward

One year ago, Team SoloMid lifted the IEM Katowice trophy, conquering Team WE in the Finals to claim their first international crown since 2012, in the days of the limited-field IGN ProLeague. They were on top of the world, if only for a little while. This year they’re pursuing a repeat, but aside from their team name, their Danish Mid laner, and the underdog mentality they’ll be nursing, the circumstances are very different.

Going into the 2015 IEM World Championship, TSM had an 11-3 domestic record, good for 1st place. They had just wrapped up an easy 2-0 week against Winterfox and Team 8, two lower-tier teams who would go on to finish 8th and 7th, respectively, while TSM would take the regular season title. Things were going fairly well for TSM, and they were carrying some momentum as they prepared for the tournament.

This year, TSM is arriving in Katowice with an 8-6 domestic record, three wins shy of their 2015 pace. They’re treading water in the standings, sitting just 4th in North America, and battling with the demons of their own inconsistency: with a 1-3 record in the last four games, and a crushing defeat at the hands of Team Liquid on Sunday lingering in their minds, TSM is certainly not carrying positive momentum into Poland.

This isn’t the stiffest field IEM could have assembled—teams like the ROX Tigers, Immortals, and G2 Esports have been left at home because of IEM’s qualifiers + invites approach—but it isn’t exactly a soft field, either. TSM’s path through Group A features ESC Ever, Royal Never Give Up, and Origen, with SK Telecom T1, CLG, the Qiao Gu Reapers, and Fnatic vying to emerge from Group B. TSM are certainly not among the favorites—Unikrn has given them 15:1 odds, third-worst for the event—but every attending team features its own set of question marks.

Can Team SoloMid repeat their 2015 accomplishment and claim back-to-back IEM World Championship titles? It won’t be easy.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

TSM had an offseason to remember, constructing one of the stronger super teams North America has seen—on paper. The reality has been nowhere close to the hype, with the star-studded roster stumbling and clearly failing to find synergy. They aren’t in danger of falling out of the playoff picture, but TSM has actually looked worse than their 8-6 win/loss record might suggest. According to gold spent percentage difference (GSPD), TSM’s +0.6% has them ranked a spot worse, at 5th. Compare that to the league-leading +12.6% GSPD they were enjoying at this time last year.

There have been some positives, of course…

Read at Unikrn →

Check the Data

STAT CARD: Forg1ven

With the news that Forg1ven has been called away from the LCS to serve with the Greek army, here’s the kind of performer H2K may have to do without.

Forg1ven stat card

All numbers reflect the first six weeks of EU LCS 2016 Spring split regular season.

Forg1ven has been exceptional this year, unrivaled during the laning phase and outputting immense damage while working with a smaller gold share than might be expected.

The Greek AD Carry has played five different champions this split, including five games with Corki and three games each with Lucian and Caitlyn.

If Forg1ven is unable to return this year, it will be a heavy blow for H2K, whose team strategy aligns so well with Forg1ven’s play style.

Legend:
DPM: Average damage to champions per minute.
DMG%: Average share of team’s damage to champions.
EGPM: Average earned gold per minute.
GOLD%: Average share of team’s earned gold.
CSD@10: Average creep score (minion+monster kills) difference at 10 minutes.
CS per Minute: Average creep score (minion+monster kills) per minute.

Image courtesy of lolesports.